Indian refiners have increased their purchases from Nigeria after cutting back on Russian crude under US pressure, with over two million barrels set for delivery in September and October. At the same time, Dangote refinery hit a record 590,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July, but for the first time, US crude made up the majority—60%—overtaking Nigerian supply. The shift is driven by competitive US pricing and ongoing difficulties in securing enough domestic crude, pushing Dangote to adopt a more commercially flexible sourcing approach.
Nigeria’s local oil producers are taking a more prominent role in the upstream sector as international majors exit and onshore stability improves. July output averaged 1.75 million bpd, the highest in over five years, with grades like CJ crude reaching peak production and some cargoes redirected to foreign markets. Infrastructure growth, such as the new Otakikpo terminal and fresh shipments by Conoil, signals expanding capacity in the local oil industry.
Although Dangote has declared Nigeria a net exporter of refined products, experts doubt the refinery will sustain full capacity before late 2026 due to mechanical issues and maintenance demands. Ongoing imports of condensate naphtha to boost gasoline production highlight operational challenges, while national crude supply is expected to remain stable at around 1.65 million bpd until year-end, with possible increases from new drilling and infrastructure projects next year.
